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Armen Ayvazyan:
Armenia on Verge of War: It Is Reality
to Be Taken into Account
The coming Washington meeting of
co-chairs of the OSCE MG on settlement
of the Karabakh conflict, especially
after the Rambouillet failure, becomes a
central topic of discussion of
politicians and media. Azerbaijan
increases anti-Armenian propaganda,
especially during Vladimir Putin's stay
in Baku, trying to gain Moscow support
in settlement of the Karabakh issue.
Director of Pan-Armenian Commonwealth
NGO, Doctor of political science Armen
Ayvazyan comments on the situation and
some aspects of Armenia’s national
security at the instance of a
PanARMENIAN.Net reporter.
23.02.2006 GMT+04:00
 
Can anything specific be expected from
the meeting of the OSCE MG co-chairs in
Washington if such is nevertheless held.
One should not expect much of the
forthcoming meeting of the OSCE Minsk
Group Co-chairs in Washington. Even if
they agree on the meeting of the FMs and
then the Presidents, it will hardly
change anything. The 1 or 2-page
document that can be signed by the
Presidents will not be implemented since
it will determine the principles of the
settlement only and will not clarify the
details. The Karabakh conflict belongs
to a kind of conflicts where each tiny
detail, like location of a block at the
contact line has the same importance as
the NKR status, for example.
Signing of a Big Treaty between the
conflicting parties is impossible.
Azerbaijan’s demands will be maximal.
Armenia and NKR will not make
concessions. It will result in
international community’s pressure on
Armenia and this pressure will become
the sword of Damocles for us. Neither
the Armenian, nor Azeri society is ready
for compromise. Moreover the resistance
of Karabakh leadership and population is
inevitable in case of signing a Big
Treaty.
The format and content of the talks on
settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict are imitation or unpardonable
pliability of the Armenian party.
Azerbaijan is going to solve the
conflict by means of force and thus
refuses from any concessions. They want
everything and at once. Armenia does not
have the right to shut its eyes to the
preparation of the war. The
international community is ready to the
solution by force owing to efforts of
Azeri propagandists and we cannot hope
for their censure.
We, if this can be said, are happy at
the European Parliament Resolution on
destruction of Old Julfa Armenian
cemetery. Does the Armenian party have
cause for optimism of the kind?
The European Parliament considers
demolition of Old Julfa Armenian
cemetery separately from the Nagorno
Karabakh conflict, while its sources
should be sought in Azerbaijan's
genocide policy against Armenians and
the Armenian state. The European
Parliament resolution denouncing
Azerbaijan's actions in Nakhichevan,
which inspired the Armenian party, does
not solve anything. The resolution can
have an effect only if we attain a
break-through in the information war. By
the way, the resolution calls on both
parties «not to demolish historical
monuments.» What does it mean – again a
sign of equality between Armenia and
Azerbaijan – kind of political
correctness? I have to emphasize that
all resolutions recognizing the Armenian
Genocide are vague – they do not specify
the responsibility for the crime,
sanctions against Turkey. On the whole,
it is clear Azerbaijan pursues a
purposeful genocide policy against
Armenia at the state level.
What is your opinion on NKR President
Arkady Ghukasyan's statement that
Armenia should give up talks with Baku?
NKR President Arkady Ghukasyan is right
to say that Armenia should quit the
negotiation process with Azerbaijan. I
fully agree with the NKR President.
Armenia should have quitted the
negotiation process after the murder of
the Armenian officer in Budapest or at
least after the destruction of the
Armenian cemetery in Julfa. Armenia
should introduce the above mentioned
incidents in the negotiation format.
This is a well-known device applied in
diplomatic practice – to refuse form
participation in order to return with
new proposals. It is impossible to stay
on the same position all the time.
What has Armenia acquired during 18
years of the Karabakh movement?
During recent 18 years the people of
Nagorno Karabakh proved that they can
win and develop while Armenia proved to
be capable to secure its borders
stretching for 42 thousand square km.
Armenia’s economy not only survived but
also moves forward. The Armenian
strategic thought already influences
upon both the public opinion and the
decision-making by the powers. I am
convinced that time works for us, since
the development of strategy on the
national security will allow to raise
the level of state governance, struggle
against corruption and staff issues.
After all it will give start to the
formation of true patriotic political
elite.
What do you forecast for the coming
prospects?
We are on the verge of a war.
Unfortunately, this is reality that
should be taken into account. It is not
so much important whether the war will
be now or in five years. It is just a
second in history. A war can be avoided
only in one case – attaining
strengthening statehood, army military
efficiency, building a fully formed
national security system, so as
Azerbaijan is never sure that the
planned aggression will succeed. This
conclusion demands a fundamental change
of the course of state building:
personnel, information, ideology. The
heavy moral and political climate of
Armenia should be improved.
Unfortunately, Armenian political beau
monde is not used to discussing the
topic of a war as if not to spread panic
among the population. However, any
citizen of Armenia should think of a war
tomorrow just for it not to take place.
Our strategic depth and human resources
imply that in case of an unfavorable
outcome of the war Armenia will stop
existence as a state and nation.
If Azerbaijan unleashes a war, it will
be a short one this time – from a week
to few weeks. Like the Seven-Day War
between Israel and Egypt. However, just
those days will decide the fate of the
nation, thus we will not have time to
fundamentally reform anything during
hostilities. We should aim at a victory
exclusively. A victory means territorial
acquisitions, as owing to lack of
defense depth and to avoid losses and
destruction the only right strategy of
waging the future war is transferring it
to the territory of the adversary. We
need not worry in the moral aspect – the
territory up to the natural border, the
River Kura – is a genuine Armenian land.
In a word, if you want peace, prepare to
a war.
«PanARMENIAN.Net», 23.02.2006
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